人口老龄化背景下的中国养老保险风险分析

伴随着我国人口老龄化的不断加速,社会保障尤其是养老保险领域的压力也随之加大,我国当前的养老保险体系也存在着一些现实问题与不足之处。而这都将导致在养老保险体系中固有的筹资、基金投资运营风险上升,同时也将出现制度与政策等新的风险。文章认为,需加强风险管理,不断完善养老保险制度,才能积极应对风险与收益的平衡。     

A study on risk retention regulation in asset securitization process

We study the impacts of the recently proposed risk retention regulation for asset securitization, i.e. the issuer has to retain a certain proportion of securitized assets. We also consider the frequently discussed measure to require the issuer disclose certain information of the securitized assets. In a dynamic model with asymmetric information between a risk-averse originating bank and a continuum of risk-averse investors, we find that it is impossible for a flat-rate retention requirement to be optimal for all asset types. Although both risk retention and information disclosure regulations are effective in reducing investors’ informational loss, neither can unconditionally enhance social welfare upon the unregulated case. For both measures, there are associated regulatory cost: risk retention regulation aggravates adverse selection problem because it undermines the channel of informational revelation by the choice of securitization intensity, and information disclosure requirement incurs a signalling cost by distorting banks’ securitization intensity in sending signals. Under an appropriate set of conditions we find that information disclosure requirement complements risk retention regulation when investors are sufficiently risk averse.     

Optimal portfolios under worst-case scenarios

In standard portfolio theories such as Mean–Variance optimization, expected utility theory, rank dependent utility heory, Yaari’s dual theory and cumulative prospect theory, the worst outcomes for optimal strategies occur when the market declines (e.g. during crises), which is at odds with the needs of many investors. Hence, we depart from the traditional settings and study optimal strategies for investors who impose additional constraints on their final wealth in the states corresponding to a stressed financial market. We provide a framework that maintains the stylized features of the SP/A theory while dealing with the goal of security in a more flexible way. Preferences become state-dependent, and we assess the impact of these preferences on trading decisions. We construct optimal strategies explicitly and show how they outperform traditional diversified strategies under worst-case scenarios.     

风险传染的信息识别——基于网络借贷市场的实证

基于清华大学金融科技研究院互联网金融研究中心网络借贷平台数据库与网贷之家相关平台统计数据,通过构建Logit模型与Cox比例风险回归模型来研究2015年12月e租宝事件和2018年6月备案延期后的“爆雷”现象,本文着重考察投资者是否具备根据信息披露程度识别问题平台和正常平台的能力。本文发现,第一,信息披露程度是影响平台风险的重要因素:信息披露程度越高的平台,其运营时间越长,出现问题的可能性越低。第二,信息披露程度越高的平台对抗风险的能力越强。风险传染期内,信息披露程度较高的平台,其成交量受市场负面情绪的影响较小。上述两点表明,总体而言,投资者重视平台披露的信息,并具备一定的信息识别能力。最后本研究也发现,上述两次风险事件期出现的问题平台是市场出清所需,它们和正常运营平台存在较大差异,尚无证据表明大量正常平台被拖累成问题平台。     

Overconfidence,risk perception and the risk-taking behavior of finance professionals

This paper highlights the role played by overconfidence and risk perception in the risk-taking behaviors of finance professionals. We interviewed 64 high-level professionals and demonstrate that they are overconfident in both the general and the financial domains. Using a recent measure proposed by Glaser et al. (2013), we indicate that respondents are overconfident in forecasting future stock prices. We demonstrate that the risk they are willing to assume is positively influenced by overconfidence and optimism and negatively influenced by risk perception. However, the stock return volatility anticipated is, in most cases, an insignificant determinant of the risk that professionals are ready to assume.     

对我国商业银行中间业务的定价机制与风险管理的思考

商业银行中间业务经营成本主要有：人力费用成本、物力消耗成本、风险产品承受成本。定价机理应采用经营成本收费制度，建立全成本核算体系。遵循合理、公平、诚信和质价相符的中间业务定价原则，积极加强与客户的沟通与告知；遵循中间业务定价流程，进行客户层次细分和市场定位；运用SWOT分析法，谋求竞争定价与实行差别定价，积极加强与同业的合作，防止恶性竞争；坚持服务性能创新，提高服务附加值含金量；适时对银行员工进行培训，积极让员工参与定价决策；适应开放型定价的趋势和要求，酌情考虑产品的关系定价。与此同时应强化担保承诺类表外业务的信用风险管理，交易类中间业务的市场风险管理，服务类中间业务的操作风险管理，而表外业务的信用风险和市场风险管理是风险管理重点。此外，商业银行开展中间业务还应防范政策风险和法律风险。     

Risk management in local authorities: An application of Schatzki's social site ontology

Prior research has devoted limited attention to studying changes in organisational risk management (RM) practices. This is despite continuous dissatisfaction from academics and practitioners with organisations' ability to manage risks. We draw on Schatzki's social site ontology to study RM practices of two New Zealand local authorities that both experienced (earthquake) risk events and whose RM practices could be expected to change. We extend recent research utilising Schatzki, by finding that practical intelligibility and general understanding mutually affect each other in the organising of practices. Further, we extend Nama and Lowe’s (2014) addition to Schatzki by highlighting the importance of including teleological structures and accounting devices into the mutually constitutive relationship between general understanding and affectivity. Finally, we contribute to RM literature by proposing that changing the general understanding (in addition to the mere implementation of RM tools) is an important way of making RM change fundamental and sustainable.     

Semiparametric estimation of multi-asset portfolio tail risk

When correlations between assets turn positive, multi-asset portfolios can become riskier than single assets. This article presents the estimation of tail risk at very high quantiles using a semiparametric estimator which is particularly suitable for portfolios with a large number of assets. The estimator captures simultaneously the information contained in each individual asset return that composes the portfolio, and the interrelation between assets. Noticeably, the accuracy of the estimates does not deteriorate when the number of assets in the portfolio increases. The implementation is as easy for a large number of assets as it is for a small number. We estimate the probability distribution of large losses for the American stock market considering portfolios with ten, fifty and one hundred assets of stocks with different market capitalization. In either case, the approximation for the portfolio tail risk is very accurate. We compare our results with well known benchmark models.     

Risky business: How social psychology can help improve corporate risk management

Drawing on research in management theory, risk analysis, and the social sciences, this installment of Business Law & Ethics Corner promotes diversity of thought in corporate governance as not only beneficial to business growth and creativity, but also imperative to managing risk successfully. The article begins with a review of four major worldviews and the risk preferences of each. Next, it examines psychological processes that guide human decision making and greatly influence risk perception. The article then applies these worldviews and psychological phenomena to the case of risk management. It offers a critique of current risk management practices, drawing on evidence from the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The article concludes by promoting increased diversity of worldviews in corporate governance as a way to prevent the same risk blindness that led to the Great Recession.     

The cost of deviating from the optimal monetary policy: A panel VAR analysis

Exploiting the panel VAR GMM estimator's features, macroeconomic country factors are combined with micro-economic bank data to test for the risk taking channel in the Euro Area. According to prior expectations based on an extended DSGE model, the analysis demonstrates that the monetary policy incentives bank risk taking by increasing the bank leverage, but it is not able to influence the level of credit risk. However, deeper investigations indicates the Taylor gap adds to the bank risk appetite in all its forms, while regarding the reactions to target variables, movements in the interest rate smooth the bank risk.